Suwon Bluewings 0-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees FC Seoul travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon Bluewings 1.30 PPG, FC Seoul 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 3 for FC Seoul and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Seoul trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 47% versus FC Seoul 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 47% | FC Seoul 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.48 xG and FC Seoul 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.016 / defence 1.169 | FC Seoul attack 0.889 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 66 Suwon Bluewings games / 66 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 25% | FC Seoul 33%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | FC Seoul 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 60% | FC Seoul 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 25% | FC Seoul 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.48 / FC Seoul 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.016 / def 1.169 | FC Seoul attack 0.889 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Seoul xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 42% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
Record (5 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 0 | FC Seoul 3W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (1.02) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
42%
2.41
25%
3.95
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.76
1.29
FC Seoul xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.29 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 21W 20D 31L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 22W 22D 28L from 72 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.15 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.17 PPG from 36 outings (10W 12D 14L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 11W 12D 13L from 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.19 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 21W 20D 31L in their last 72 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 22W 22D 28L in their last 72 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, FC Seoul have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 53%, FC Seoul 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Suwon Bluewings) and 36% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Seoul in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 56% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 36% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Suwon Bluewings's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul finished level at 0-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.48 xG and FC Seoul 1.29 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Seoul landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against FC Seoul attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 25% | FC Seoul 33%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 47%, FC Seoul 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.15 PPG, FC Seoul 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.