Suwon Bluewings 0-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees FC Seoul travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021, 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon Bluewings 0.60 PPG, FC Seoul 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 0 for FC Seoul and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Seoul trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 53% versus FC Seoul 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 57% | FC Seoul 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.20 xG and FC Seoul 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.014 / defence 1.502 | FC Seoul attack 0.773 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 1.128. FC Seoul bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Suwon Bluewings games / 30 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 33% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 39%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | FC Seoul 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 80% | FC Seoul 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 33% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.20 / FC Seoul 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.014 / def 1.502 | FC Seoul attack 0.773 / def 1.206 | league avg home 0.980 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Seoul xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 33% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 0 | FC Seoul 0W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (1.01) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.60
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.51
1.31
FC Seoul xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.31 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 10W 9D 11L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 7W 9D 14L from 30 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.30 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 30 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 7W 9D 14L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or FC Seoul away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, FC Seoul have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suwon Bluewings at 79%, FC Seoul at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Suwon Bluewings) and 29% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 57% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 29% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon Bluewings 0-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.20 xG and FC Seoul 1.31 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.01 / defence 1.50 against FC Seoul attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 33% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 39%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 57%, FC Seoul 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.30 PPG, FC Seoul 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.