Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Monday 15 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Seoul's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.20 for FC Seoul. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Seoul goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 52% versus FC Seoul 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | FC Seoul 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and FC Seoul 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.741 / defence 0.957 | FC Seoul attack 1.106 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.242. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 58 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 43%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | FC Seoul 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | FC Seoul 70%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 / FC Seoul 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.741 / def 0.957 | FC Seoul attack 1.106 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Seoul xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 28% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.74) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.11x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 25/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.55
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.32
1.31
FC Seoul xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.31 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 8D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.20 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.20 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Seoul in 60%.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 5-1 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, FC Seoul 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 33% for FC Seoul.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 67% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 33% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and FC Seoul 1.31 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against FC Seoul attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 43%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%, FC Seoul 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 PPG, FC Seoul 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.