Pohang Steelers 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 26 June 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 3W 1D 6L at Steelyard Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.67 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.083 / defence 0.802 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.096. Gimcheon Sangmu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Pohang Steelers games / 17 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 56% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 56% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.67 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.083 / def 0.802 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.988 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 56% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Pohang Steelers home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.08) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.99x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.12
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.54
0.87
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
27.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.87 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
7
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 1-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.67 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 56% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 19%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.