Jeju United FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 35%, yet in-form Jeju United FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Jeju United FC have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeju United FC 60% and Suwon City FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 50% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.94 xG and Suwon City FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.817 / defence 1.167 | Suwon City FC attack 0.872 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 0.956. Data: 36 Jeju United FC games / 36 Suwon City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 32% | Suwon City FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Suwon City FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 60% | Suwon City FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 32% | Suwon City FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Jeju United FC 0.94 / Suwon City FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.817 / def 1.167 | Suwon City FC attack 0.872 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.001 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Suwon City FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 33% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
33%
3.00
32%
3.16
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.97
Suwon City FC xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.97 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 12W 16D 10L from 38 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 15L across 38 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.37 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 72%, Suwon City FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeju United FC) and 61% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Jeju United FC's games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Jeju United FC's matches and 61% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC finished level at 0-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.94 xG and Suwon City FC 0.97 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Suwon City FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 32% | Suwon City FC 35%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 50%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.