Incheon United 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 11 May 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.88 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.848 / defence 1.067 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.963 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.043. Data: 14 Incheon United games / 14 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 34% | Pohang Steelers 38%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Pohang Steelers 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 May 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 28% | Draw 34% | Pohang Steelers 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Incheon United 0.88 / Pohang Steelers 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.848 / def 1.067 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.963 / def 1.129 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pohang Steelers xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 11 May 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Incheon United 1 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 28% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Incheon United and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Pohang Steelers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.85) and Pohang Steelers's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
28%
3.55
34%
2.96
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.95
1.07
Pohang Steelers xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.07 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Incheon United's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
4
Draws
5
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, Pohang Steelers have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Incheon United 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Incheon United and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 15, as Incheon United and Pohang Steelers drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.88 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.07 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 28% | Draw 34% | Pohang Steelers 38%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.