Incheon United 2-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Incheon United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Incheon United against 1.40 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.19 xG and Daegu FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.832 / defence 0.877 | Daegu FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.154. Data: 45 Incheon United games / 45 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 41% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | Daegu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 41% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Incheon United 1.19 / Daegu FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.832 / def 0.877 | Daegu FC attack 0.918 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Daegu FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Daegu FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Incheon United 2 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daegu FC part of?
Incheon United vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 41% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Incheon United and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.83) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.92x) against Incheon United's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.30
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.11
0.93
Daegu FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.93 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Incheon United come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 11D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Incheon United against 1.45 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Incheon United's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daegu FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Incheon United
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daegu FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 32%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 13, as Incheon United and Daegu FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.19 xG and Daegu FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against Daegu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 41% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.24 PPG, Daegu FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.