Gangwon FC 2-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors make the trip to Chuncheon Songam Stadium to face Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Gangwon FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gangwon FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Gangwon FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gangwon FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gangwon FC 38% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.299 / defence 1.146 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.957 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.201. Gangwon FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Gangwon FC games / 47 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 50% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 27%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.70. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 50% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Gangwon FC 1.85 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.299 / def 1.146 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.957 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC 2 - 1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 50% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (2 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gangwon FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.96x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.41
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.32
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
4%
23.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.32 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 20W 23D 33L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 37W 19D 20L from 76 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 19W 6D 12L from 37 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.33 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 20W 23D 33L in their last 76 games (1.09 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 20L in their last 76 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-3 on 13 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
2
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 6, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 62%, Jeonbuk Motors 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gangwon FC) and 46% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.85 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.15 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 50% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 27%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 38%, Jeonbuk Motors 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.