FC Seoul 2-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Suwon City FC make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Seoul have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Seoul World Cup Stadium, FC Seoul have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for FC Seoul, 1.50 for Suwon City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 53% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 43% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.14 xG and Suwon City FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.881 / defence 1.085 | Suwon City FC attack 0.934 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.259. Data: 63 FC Seoul games / 63 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 33% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon City FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: FC Seoul 50% | Suwon City FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 33% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Seoul 1.14 / Suwon City FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.881 / def 1.085 | Suwon City FC attack 0.934 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Suwon City FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul 2 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 33% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Seoul and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Seoul's attack rating (0.88) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.93x) against FC Seoul's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.64
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.42
1.28
Suwon City FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.28 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, FC Seoul have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 21W 21D 26L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 25W 16D 27L from 68 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Seoul against 1.34 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Seoul have posted 1.18 PPG from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 9W 10D 14L from 33 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Seoul are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 60%.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 21W 21D 26L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 25W 16D 27L in their last 68 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Suwon City FC away?
FC Seoul's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.18 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 7-2 on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Seoul
4
Draws
0
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Suwon City FC?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 48%, Suwon City FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Seoul) and 48% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: FC Seoul have failed to score in 33% of games; Suwon City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 52% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Seoul's recent games and 48% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Seoul and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as FC Seoul and Suwon City FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.14 xG and Suwon City FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Suwon City FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 33% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 39%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 43%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Seoul 1.24 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.