FC Anyang 1-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Anyang at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Gwangju FC travel to Anyang Stadium to take on FC Anyang. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Odds Breakdown
Bookmakers make FC Anyang the preferred side — FC Anyang priced at 1.60 (58% implied), Draw at 3.68 (25%), Gwangju FC at 5.52 (17% implied).
Form Guide
FC Anyang — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang's home record at Anyang Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Anyang Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
FC Anyang are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Anyang, 3 for Gwangju FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 5–2 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Anyang in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 64% versus Gwangju FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 49% | Gwangju FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.95 xG and Gwangju FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.076 / defence 1.156 | Gwangju FC attack 0.675 / defence 1.695. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.195. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.695 — this is suppressing FC Anyang's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 FC Anyang games / 50 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 60% | Draw 23% | Gwangju FC 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Gwangju FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Anyang (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Gwangju FC lead the H2H ledger, but FC Anyang carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.60 (fair-implied 58% vs Poisson 60%). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting. The model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 55% versus the market's fair-implied 44% (priced at 2.14).
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: FC Anyang 70% | Gwangju FC 20%. The model sees BTTS Yes as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 53% versus the market's fair-implied 45% (priced at 2.06).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 60% | Draw 23% | Gwangju FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Anyang 1.95 / Gwangju FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.076 / def 1.156 | Gwangju FC attack 0.675 / def 1.695 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: FC Anyang 1.60 (impl 58%) | Draw 3.68 (impl 25%) | Gwangju FC 5.52 (impl 17%) • Market favourite: FC Anyang at 1.60 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to FC Anyang — Poisson 60% vs market implied 58% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 2.14 (impl 47%) / Under 2.5 1.68 (impl 59%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 55% • Goals: Poisson rates Over 2.5 at 55% vs the market's fair-implied 44% (11pp gap) — the model sees Over 2.5 as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 2.06 (impl 49%) / No 1.67 (impl 60%) | Poisson BTTS probability 53% • BTTS: Poisson rates Yes at 53% vs the market's fair-implied 45% (8pp gap) — the model sees BTTS Yes as more likely than the market's pricing reflects.
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gwangju FC xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 19 July 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
FC Anyang 1 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 60% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Anyang and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gwangju FC?
Record (5 meetings): FC Anyang 1W | Draws 1 | Gwangju FC 3W.
What form are FC Anyang and Gwangju FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
1X2 market: FC Anyang 1.60 (impl 58%) | Draw 3.68 (impl 25%) | Gwangju FC 5.52 (impl 17%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 1.08x the league average against Gwangju FC's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.27
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
Gwangju FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
2%
42.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Anyang and 0.93 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Anyang come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 15D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.13 PPG from 55 outings (16W 14D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.31 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Anyang's home form reads 9W 8D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 0.87 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Gwangju FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.30 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when FC Anyang won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Anyang's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
2
Draws
3
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gwangju FC?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Gwangju FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when FC Anyang 1-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 63%, Gwangju FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC Anyang) and 44% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 30% of games; Gwangju FC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 33% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC Anyang's recent games and 44% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Anyang and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang and Gwangju FC finished level at 1-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.95 xG and Gwangju FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Anyang fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Gwangju FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.70, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 60% | Draw 23% | Gwangju FC 16%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 49%, Gwangju FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.31 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.