Daegu FC 0-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 5 May 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.19 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.096 / defence 1.009 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.261. Data: 43 Daegu FC games / 43 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Daegu FC 1.19 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.096 / def 1.009 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 0 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 33% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.07x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.77
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.36
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.36 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 25W 26D 25L from 76 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 43W 21D 12L across 76 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 16W 12D 10L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 18W 12D 8L across 38 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daegu FC) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daegu FC's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 0-3 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.19 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.