Daegu FC 0-4 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Jeonbuk Motors travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 May 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 54% versus Jeonbuk Motors 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.74 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.044 / defence 1.097 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.980 / defence 0.607. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.044. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.607 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Daegu FC games / 48 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 24% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.22. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Daegu FC's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 May 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 24% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Daegu FC 0.74 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.044 / def 1.097 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.980 / def 0.607 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 27 May 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Daegu FC 0 - 4 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 24% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (8 meetings): Daegu FC 3W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 4W.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Jeonbuk Motors's defence at 0.61x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
24%
4.18
31%
3.19
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.86
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 17.5 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.12 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 23W 27D 28L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Jeonbuk Motors's form line: 28W 21D 29L from 78 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.23 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (13W 17D 9L).
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 11W 9D 19L from 39 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.26 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 27D 28L in their last 78 games (1.23 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 28W 21D 29L in their last 78 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
1
Draws
6
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 56%, Jeonbuk Motors 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Daegu FC) and 44% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 38% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Daegu FC's recent games and 44% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 0-4 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.74 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.98 / defence 0.61, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 24% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.23 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.