Daegu FC 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at DGB Daegu Bank Park — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jeju United FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Daegu FC, 1.70 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.31 xG and Jeju United FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.280 / defence 0.951 | Jeju United FC attack 1.194 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.148. Daegu FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Daegu FC games / 49 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 60% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Daegu FC 1.31 / Jeju United FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.280 / def 0.951 | Jeju United FC attack 1.194 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Jeju United FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 37% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.28) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.19x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.81
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.30
Jeju United FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.30 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 10L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.37 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 5W 9D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 37%; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.31 xG and Jeju United FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Jeju United FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 37% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 37%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.45 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.