Daegu FC 3-1 Asan Mugunghwa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 54%, yet in-form Asan Mugunghwa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asan Mugunghwa make the trip to DGB Daegu Bank Park to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Asan Mugunghwa's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Asan Mugunghwa have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Asan Mugunghwa are 2.00 PPG clear of Daegu FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Asan Mugunghwa in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Daegu FC 0W, Asan Mugunghwa 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2024, ended 3–4 with Asan Mugunghwa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.79 xG and Asan Mugunghwa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.067 / defence 1.028 | Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 0 Asan Mugunghwa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 54% | Draw 23% | Asan Mugunghwa 23%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Asan Mugunghwa 4.35. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Asan Mugunghwa (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 5.1 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 54% | Draw 23% | Asan Mugunghwa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Daegu FC 1.79 / Asan Mugunghwa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.067 / def 1.028 | Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Asan Mugunghwa xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa kick off?
Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Asan Mugunghwa.
Where is Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa part of?
Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 54% chance of winning, Asan Mugunghwa a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa?
Record (1 meetings): Daegu FC 0W | Draws 0 | Asan Mugunghwa 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Asan Mugunghwa (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 W.
What do the betting odds say about Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Asan Mugunghwa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asan Mugunghwa's attack (0.85x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 66/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.31
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.08
Asan Mugunghwa xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
26.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.08 for Asan Mugunghwa, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Daegu FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asan Mugunghwa's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Asan Mugunghwa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Asan Mugunghwa are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Daegu FC.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Asan Mugunghwa are on 4.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Asan Mugunghwa in 100%.
Last 1 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Early Season
Asan Mugunghwa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Asan Mugunghwa have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Daegu FC
0
Draws
1
Asan Mugunghwa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa?
From 2 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 1, Asan Mugunghwa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Daegu FC 3-1 Asan Mugunghwa.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Asan Mugunghwa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Asan Mugunghwa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Daegu FC's games and 100% of Asan Mugunghwa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Daegu FC's matches and 100% of Asan Mugunghwa's.
Do Daegu FC and Asan Mugunghwa tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Asan Mugunghwa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Asan Mugunghwa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Asan Mugunghwa 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.79 xG and Asan Mugunghwa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 54% | Draw 23% | Asan Mugunghwa 23%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 100%, Asan Mugunghwa 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Asan Mugunghwa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Daegu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daegu FC conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Asan Mugunghwa managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.