Damac 1-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Damac register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Nassr in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Nassr have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 8 encounters against Damac's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 8 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Damac 57% and Al-Nassr 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 47% | Al-Nassr 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.12 xG and Al-Nassr 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.691 / defence 0.895 | Al-Nassr attack 1.274 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.488. Damac's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Damac games / 49 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Damac 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 1.96. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Damac 1.12 / Al-Nassr 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.691 / def 0.895 | Al-Nassr attack 1.274 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Nassr xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Damac vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 21 January 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Damac 1 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Damac vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Nassr part of?
Damac vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 25% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Damac and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Record (8 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 8W.
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
25%
3.98
24%
4.14
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Damac xG
Total xG
2.82
1.70
Al-Nassr xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
21.72
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Damac and 1.70 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 49 games, going 10W 16D 23L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.06 PPG from 49 outings (31W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 6W 8D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.00 points per game from 24 outings (15W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.45 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 71%.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 10W 16D 23L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 31W 8D 10L in their last 49 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.08 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2021, when Al-Nassr won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
0
Draws
10
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 58%, Al-Nassr 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Damac and 79% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Damac's games and 71% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Damac's matches and 79% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Damac and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Damac 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Damac 1-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.12 xG and Al-Nassr 1.70 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.69 / defence 0.90 against Al-Nassr attack 1.27 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 47%, Al-Nassr 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.