Al Wehda Club 0-4 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Thursday 9 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Wehda Club are significantly better at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Wehda Club 0W, Al-Nassr 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wehda Club — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Wehda Club 20% | Al-Nassr 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wehda Club 20% | Al-Nassr 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 0.69 xG and Al-Nassr 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.675 / defence 0.908 | Al-Nassr attack 1.253 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.147. Al Wehda Club's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Al Wehda Club games / 45 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 20% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 5.00 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Nassr 1.96. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 29% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 20% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Wehda Club 0.69 / Al-Nassr 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.675 / def 0.908 | Al-Nassr attack 1.253 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Nassr xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 9 February 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 4 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 20% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.68x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.25x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
20%
5.06
29%
3.46
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.00
1.30
Al-Nassr xG
5.06
20%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
18.66
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 17.7 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.30 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.27 PPG from 15 outings (10W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Al Wehda Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.00 scored and 0.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 10W 4D 1L in their last 15 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 6-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Al Wehda Club) and 29% (Al-Nassr) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Al Wehda Club) and 57% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 57%; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Nassr in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 29% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 57% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Wehda Club 0-4 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 0.69 xG and Al-Nassr 1.30 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.68 / defence 0.91 against Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 0.73, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 20% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 20%, Al-Nassr 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.