Al Taee 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Taee face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Match Analysis

Al Taee host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Taee — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Taee's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al Taee's games and 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's (from Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Al-Ahli Jeddah have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Taee. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2023, ended Al Taee 0–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Al Taee trading profile (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 45% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 55% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.70 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.008 / defence 1.262 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.415 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.398. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack rating of 1.415, which lifts their away xG to 2.50. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output up. Data: built from Al Taee's last 50 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 20.

Result probabilities: Al Taee 25% | Draw 20% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.96 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 76% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% — both xG figures (1.70 / 2.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taee's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taee 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% (last 10 away games).

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