Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al-Fateh travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022, 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 1.30 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Fateh 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 77% versus Al-Fateh 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 64% | Al-Fateh 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.13 xG and Al-Fateh 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.962 / defence 1.058 | Al-Fateh attack 0.764 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.212. Data: 22 Al Taawon games / 22 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fateh 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 70% | Al-Fateh 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Taawon 1.13 / Al-Fateh 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.962 / def 1.058 | Al-Fateh attack 0.764 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Fateh xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 4 March 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 38% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.19
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.11
0.98
Al-Fateh xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.98 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 5W 8D 9L from 22 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 9L across 22 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.05 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2021, when Al-Fateh won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 70%, Al-Fateh 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Taawon) and 30% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 40%; Al-Fateh in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Taawon's games and 40% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Taawon's recent games and 30% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Al Taawon and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.13 xG and Al-Fateh 0.98 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Al-Fateh attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 30%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 64%, Al-Fateh 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.05 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.