Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Fateh travel to Al Taawon Arena to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Taawon haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawon Arena: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fateh haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Fateh's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Taawon 1.20 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 65% and Al-Fateh 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Fateh 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Fateh 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.936 / defence 1.026 | Al-Fateh attack 0.851 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al Taawon games / 34 Al-Fateh games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 42% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Taawon 1.46 / Al-Fateh 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.936 / def 1.026 | Al-Fateh attack 0.851 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Fateh xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 15:55 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 42% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al Taawon 5W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.94) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.69
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.67
1.21
Al-Fateh xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.21 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 15W 8D 11L from 34 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. Al Taawon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 15L across 34 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. Al-Fateh haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 5D 5L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Pre-Season
Al-Fateh
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 15W 8D 11L in their last 34 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 10D 15L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.53 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2021, when Al-Fateh won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fateh?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 65%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Taawon) and 35% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Taawon's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Taawon's recent games and 35% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.