Al Riyadh 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Damac at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 6 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Riyadh are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Damac have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 0.70 PPG versus Damac's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Riyadh have won 1, Damac 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Damac trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 56% versus Damac 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 56% | Damac 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.74 xG and Damac 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.922 / defence 0.999 | Damac attack 0.806 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.495. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Al Riyadh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al Riyadh games / 41 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 25% | Damac 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Damac 3.85. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 50% | Damac 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 25% | Damac 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Riyadh 1.74 / Damac 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.922 / def 0.999 | Damac attack 0.806 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Damac xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Damac kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Damac kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 6 November 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Al Riyadh 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Damac part of?
Al Riyadh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 49% chance of winning, Damac a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Riyadh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 3 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Damac (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.04
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.94
1.20
Damac xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
5%
21.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.20 for Damac, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 12W 9D 20L from 41 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 21L across 41 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 1.10 PPG, Damac on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 3W 5D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Riyadh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Damac away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.30 PPG; Damac away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Damac runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2026, when Damac won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 45%, Damac 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Riyadh) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 35% of games; Damac in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 55% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Damac tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Damac in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Riyadh and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.74 xG and Damac 1.20 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Damac attack 0.81 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 25% | Damac 26%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 56%, Damac 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.10 PPG, Damac 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.