Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Riyadh. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025, 15:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 3W 4D 3L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 1.50 PPG versus Al Taawon's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 0 for Al Taawon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 57% versus Al Taawon 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al Taawon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.00 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.897 / defence 0.898 | Al Taawon attack 0.914 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.457. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Al Riyadh games / 49 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taawon 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 50% | Al Taawon 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Riyadh 1.00 / Al Taawon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.897 / def 0.898 | Al Taawon attack 0.914 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Taawon xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:10 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Al Riyadh 1 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 30% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
30%
3.28
29%
3.45
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.19
1.20
Al Taawon xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.20 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 15D 20L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 22W 15D 12L from 49 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Riyadh.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 9W 9D 6L from 24 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.41 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 22W 15D 12L in their last 49 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.12 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al Taawon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Riyadh) and 33% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 38%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 38% of games; Al Taawon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 46% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 33% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Taawon 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.00 xG and Al Taawon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Al Taawon attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 41%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Riyadh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 55%, Al Taawon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taawon's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.