Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al Shabab to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.10 PPG versus Al Shabab's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al Shabab and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% versus Al Shabab 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al Shabab 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.305 / defence 0.744 | Al Shabab attack 0.867 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.412. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.744 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 61 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al Shabab 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 / Al Shabab 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.305 / def 0.744 | Al Shabab attack 0.867 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al Shabab xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 57% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.21
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.91
Al Shabab xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
29.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.91 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 38W 12D 11L from 61 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 21L across 61 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Shabab heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 21W 7D 2L from 30 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.62 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 38W 12D 11L in their last 61 games (2.07 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Shabab have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Al Shabab 1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%, Al Shabab 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 47% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Shabab in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 57% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 47% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.74 xG and Al Shabab 0.91 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.74 against Al Shabab attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 19%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.