Al Okhdood 1-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood's home record at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.50 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 0 for Al-Hazm and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 75% versus Al-Hazm 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Okhdood 75% | Al-Hazm 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.65 xG and Al-Hazm 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 1.065 / defence 1.444 | Al-Hazm attack 0.673 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.501. Data: 38 Al Okhdood games / 4 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hazm 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.5 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Al Okhdood as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Hazm 25%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Okhdood 1.65 / Al-Hazm 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 1.065 / def 1.444 | Al-Hazm attack 0.673 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al-Hazm xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Al Okhdood 1 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 42% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (1.06) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.67x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.21
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.10
1.46
Al-Hazm xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.46 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hazm are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Okhdood have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 25%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Hazm tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 75%, Al-Hazm 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al Okhdood) and 0% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 25% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 0% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.65 xG and Al-Hazm 1.46 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.06 / defence 1.44 against Al-Hazm attack 0.67 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Hazm 34%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 75%, Al-Hazm 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.