Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al Taawon at Mrsool Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Mrsool Park this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mrsool Park.
Al Taawon — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al Taawon 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 50% versus Al Taawon 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 63% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.44 xG and Al Taawon 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.158 / defence 0.800 | Al Taawon attack 1.132 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.178. Data: 46 Al-Nassr games / 46 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 3.57. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al Taawon 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Nassr 1.44 / Al Taawon 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.158 / def 0.800 | Al Taawon attack 1.132 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Taawon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 46% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Nassr 2W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.79
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.50
1.07
Al Taawon xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.07 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 46 games, going 30W 8D 8L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (16W 16D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 16W 4D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.46 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 30W 8D 8L in their last 46 games (2.13 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 16W 16D 14L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.26 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 6, Al Taawon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al Taawon?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 56%, Al Taawon 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Nassr and 56% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Nassr's games and 70% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Nassr's matches and 56% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Taawon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 2-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.44 xG and Al Taawon 1.07 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.16 / defence 0.80 against Al Taawon attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 28%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 63%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.