Al-Nassr 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Awal Park at King Saud University to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 22 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Al Awal Park at King Saud University this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Al-Nassr, 1.90 for Al-Qadisiyah FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 60% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.55 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.110 / defence 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.848 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.264. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Al-Nassr games / 10 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 5.00. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Nassr 1.55 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.110 / def 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.848 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 54% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.11) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (0.85x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.38
0.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
23.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.83 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 4D 0L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (6W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.20 PPG for Al-Nassr against 1.90 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Nassr's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Qadisiyah FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.30 scored and 0.70 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 30%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 1.80 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 60%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Nassr and 40% for Al-Qadisiyah FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 40% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 40% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 1-2 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.55 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al-Qadisiyah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 50%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.20 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.