Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Okhdood encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Nassr and Al Okhdood meet at Al-Awwal Park in Pro League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Nassr's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Al-Nassr's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al Okhdood have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Okhdood's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2024, ended Al-Nassr 3–2 Al Okhdood — a Al-Nassr win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 66% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 74% | Al Okhdood 53%). Note also that Al Okhdood surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al-Nassr recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.61 xG and Al Okhdood 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.092 / defence 0.793 | Al Okhdood attack 1.016 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.366. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 47 games and Al Okhdood's last 47.

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.03 | Draw 4.04 | Al Okhdood 3.85. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al Okhdood's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games).

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