Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 3D 0L at Mrsool Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 51% versus Al-Ettifaq 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 63% | Al-Ettifaq 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.72 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.263 / defence 0.866 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.801 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.112. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Al-Nassr games / 43 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Nassr 1.72 / Al-Ettifaq 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.263 / def 0.866 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.801 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Al-Ettifaq xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 59% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.26x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.02
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.49
0.77
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
3%
35.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.77 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 28W 7D 8L from 43 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 17L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 14W 4D 3L from 21 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.21 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 28W 7D 8L in their last 43 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 14D 17L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.19 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 57%, Al-Ettifaq 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Nassr) and 48% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 38%; Al-Ettifaq in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Nassr's matches and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.72 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.26 / defence 0.87 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 16%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 63%, Al-Ettifaq 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.