Al Najma 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fayha make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to face Al Najma in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 16:35 UTC.
Form
Al Najma (all games): 0W 0D 3L across 3 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Al-Fayha are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Al Najma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Najma 67% versus Al-Fayha 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Najma 67% | Al-Fayha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.18 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.685 / defence 0.999 | Al-Fayha attack 0.826 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.445. Al Najma's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Al Najma games / 37 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 67% | Al-Fayha 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 16:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Najma 1.18 / Al-Fayha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.685 / def 0.999 | Al-Fayha attack 0.826 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:35 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Fayha?
Al Najma 1 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Fayha in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Najma's attack at 0.69x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.83x) against Al Najma's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
36%
2.81
28%
3.59
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al Najma xG
Total xG
2.37
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.19 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Al Najma have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 3L record — L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Najma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fayha are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Najma.
Attack vs Defence
Al Najma are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al Najma or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Najma have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
0
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Fayha?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Najma 67%, Al-Fayha 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Najma and 67% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 33%; Al Najma have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al Najma's recent matches and 33% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Najma's matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Najma and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al Najma 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Najma 1-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.18 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36%, with Al Najma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 67%, Al-Fayha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fayha scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.