Al-Ittihad FC 1-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 64% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.883 / defence 0.863 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.460 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Al-Ittihad FC games / 67 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.883 / def 0.863 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.460 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 5 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 25% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
25%
3.95
25%
3.97
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.76
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
4%
23.00
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.76 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 67 games, going 42W 12D 13L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.12 PPG from 67 outings (43W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 2.06 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 26W 2D 5L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.88 points per game from 33 outings (19W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.99 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.96 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 42W 12D 13L in their last 67 games (2.06 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 43W 13D 11L in their last 67 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.42 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 54%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 61% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 61% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 61% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-5 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.76 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.86 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 25% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 57%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.06 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.