Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 36%, yet in-form Al-Ittihad FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 2D 1L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 0 for Al-Fateh and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 43% versus Al-Fateh 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al-Fateh 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 0.95 xG and Al-Fateh 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.975 / defence 0.804 | Al-Fateh attack 1.268 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.002. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Al-Ittihad FC games / 35 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fateh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ittihad FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Fateh 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 0.95 / Al-Fateh 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.975 / def 0.804 | Al-Fateh attack 1.268 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al-Fateh xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 33% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
33%
3.07
31%
3.22
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
1.97
1.02
Al-Fateh xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.02 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 35 games, going 23W 7D 5L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.17 PPG from 35 outings (11W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 12W 3D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.51 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 7D 5L in their last 35 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ittihad FC 29% BTTS, Al-Fateh 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 35% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 35%; Al-Fateh in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 35% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 35% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 0.95 xG and Al-Fateh 1.02 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against Al-Fateh attack 1.27 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 31% | Al-Fateh 36%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 51%, Al-Fateh 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.