Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 21 January 2022 at 16:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 7W 1D 1L from 9 Pro League appearances (2.44 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City.
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 3D 4L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 1W, Al-Faisaly FC 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 50% versus Al-Faisaly FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.292 / defence 0.965 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.553 / defence 1.537. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.172. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.537 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Al-Ittihad FC games / 16 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 19% | Al-Faisaly FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Faisaly FC 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 16:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 19% | Al-Faisaly FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.292 / def 0.965 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.553 / def 1.537 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Al-Faisaly FC xG
42%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 16:10 on Friday 21 January 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 72% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.29) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.55x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
72%
1.38
19%
5.24
8%
11.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.81
0.62
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
11.86
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
54%
1.87
11%
8.87
Win to Nil
39%
2.58
1%
105.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.62 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 12W 2D 2L from 16 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 6L across 16 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.38 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 12W 2D 2L in their last 16 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 29%, Al-Faisaly FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Al-Ittihad FC and 29% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 43% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 29% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Faisaly FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.62 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.55 / defence 1.54, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 19% | Al-Faisaly FC 8%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Faisaly FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.