Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC (all games): 0W 3D 3L across 6 Pro League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Faisaly FC in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 2W, Al-Faisaly FC 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 67% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.191 / defence 0.989 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Ittihad FC games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Faisaly FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 26% | Al-Faisaly FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.00 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.191 / def 0.989 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Faisaly FC xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 59% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.19) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.77x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
59%
1.71
26%
3.89
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.98
0.98
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
47.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.98 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 4W 2D 0L from 6 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.33 PPG overall — Al-Ittihad FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 games (2.33 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Al-Ittihad FC, 67% for Al-Faisaly FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Ittihad FC and 67% for Al-Faisaly FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.