Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 December 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 1.20 PPG lead over Al-Ettifaq (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 42% versus Al-Ettifaq 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.80 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.173 / defence 0.966 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.075 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.057. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al-Ittihad FC games / 13 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 4.55. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Al-Ettifaq 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.80 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.173 / def 0.966 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.075 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 53% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.07x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
27.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 8W 2D 2L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 2D 2L in their last 12 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 29%, Al-Ettifaq 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 71% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 57% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 71% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Ettifaq 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 3-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.80 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.07 / defence 1.37, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 53% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 42%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (12 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (12 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.