Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al Baten have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 52% versus Al Baten 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Al Baten 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG and Al Baten 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.195 / defence 1.060 | Al Baten attack 0.761 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al-Ittihad FC games / 29 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 23% | Al Baten 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Al Baten 4.35. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Baten 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 23% | Al Baten 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 / Al Baten 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.195 / def 1.060 | Al Baten attack 0.761 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Baten xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 54% chance of winning, Al Baten a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Al Baten (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.76x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.30
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.07
Al Baten xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
4%
26.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.07 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 29 games, going 20W 4D 5L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (8W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 11W 1D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.64 points per game from 14 outings (2W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 1.07 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al Baten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 20W 4D 5L in their last 29 games (2.21 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.43 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Baten in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
0
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al Baten have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 36%, Al Baten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 43% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al Baten in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 43% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 43% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 30, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Baten drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.78 xG and Al Baten 1.07 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Baten landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against Al Baten attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 23% | Al Baten 23%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 59%, Al Baten 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Baten's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.