Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:20 UTC.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 9W 0D 1L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Hilal Saudi FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Al Taawon (3.00 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 3–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47% versus Al Taawon 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Taawon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.42 xG and Al Taawon 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.384 / defence 0.816 | Al Taawon attack 1.106 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.050. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 34 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 4.00. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al Taawon 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.42 / Al Taawon 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.384 / def 0.816 | Al Taawon attack 1.106 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al Taawon xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:20 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 48% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.11x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.72
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.37
0.95
Al Taawon xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.95 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 24W 7D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon's form line: 9W 15D 10L from 34 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.41 PPG from 17 outings (13W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 4W 8D 5L from 17 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.41 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 71%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 24W 7D 3L in their last 34 games (2.32 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 9W 15D 10L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.41 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al Taawon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41%, Al Taawon 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 53% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 76% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 53% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.42 xG and Al Taawon 0.95 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.82 against Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.90, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 25%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al Taawon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al Taawon 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.