Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Al Okhdood travel to Kingdom Arena to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Kingdom Arena: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al Okhdood in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al Okhdood 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.93 xG and Al Okhdood 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.939 / defence 0.825 | Al Okhdood attack 1.040 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.364. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.939 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 51 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Draw 15% | Al Okhdood 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 | Draw 6.67 | Al Okhdood 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.93 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al Okhdood 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Draw 15% | Al Okhdood 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.93 / Al Okhdood 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.939 / def 0.825 | Al Okhdood attack 1.040 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Okhdood xG
65%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 73% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.94x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.93. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
73%
1.36
15%
6.89
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
4.10
1.17
Al Okhdood xG
1.36
73%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
5%
18.77
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
1%
153.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.17 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 45W 4D 2L from 51 games, a 2.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 29L across 51 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 24W 1D 0L from 25 games — 2.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 3.02 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.06 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 45W 4D 2L in their last 51 games (2.73 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 13W 9D 29L in their last 51 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.92 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%, Al Okhdood 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 48% for Al Okhdood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 48% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 48% of Al Okhdood's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 4-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.93 xG and Al Okhdood 1.17 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.94 / defence 0.82 against Al Okhdood attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Draw 15% | Al Okhdood 12%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al Okhdood 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.73 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.