Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al-Nassr travel to King Fahd International Stadium to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 December 2021, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at King Fahd International Stadium: 4W 2D 0L from 6 Pro League appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at King Fahd International Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) versus 1.40 (Al-Nassr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% and Al-Nassr 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 36% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.22 xG and Al-Nassr 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.951 / defence 0.969 | Al-Nassr attack 0.990 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.003. Data: 11 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 12 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Nassr 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Nassr 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% | Al-Nassr 83%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Nassr 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.22 / Al-Nassr 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.951 / def 0.969 | Al-Nassr attack 0.990 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Nassr xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 11:15 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 42% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.38
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.18
0.96
Al-Nassr xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.96 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 6D 0L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 73%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 6D 0L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%, Al-Nassr 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 67% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 83% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 67% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-2 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.22 xG and Al-Nassr 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Al-Nassr attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 42% | Draw 30% | Al-Nassr 29%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 36%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Al-Nassr winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.