Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Ar-Rass Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 1W 4D 1L from 6 Pro League appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 0.90 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 27% versus Al-Ettifaq 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 18% | Al-Ettifaq 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.50 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.863 / defence 1.135 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.979 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 0.988. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.569 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al-Hazm games / 11 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hazm at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Ettifaq 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hazm 1.50 / Al-Ettifaq 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.863 / def 1.135 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.979 / def 1.569 | league avg home 1.105 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hazm 0 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 46% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.88
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.60
1.10
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
6%
16.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.10 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 2W 4D 5L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 2W 4D 5L from 11 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 0.91 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (1W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 50%, Al-Ettifaq 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Hazm) and 67% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Hazm's games and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Hazm 0-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.50 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.10 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.98 / defence 1.57, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 18%, Al-Ettifaq 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.91 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.