Al-Hazm 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 August 2021 at 17:10 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Al-Hazm, 1.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.88 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 1.154 / defence 1.463 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 0.780. Data: 1 Al-Hazm games / 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 59% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hazm (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Aug 2021, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 59% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hazm 1.88 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 1.154 / def 1.463 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.414 / away 0.780 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:10 on Thursday 19 August 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hazm 2 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 59% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.85x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.49
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.84
0.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
34.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.97 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al-Hazm against 1.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Hazm's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Hazm's games and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 0% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.88 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 1.15 / defence 1.46 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 59% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 19%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 100%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.00 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hazm managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.