Al-Fayha 1-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Shabab are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Al Shabab 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 6% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 35% versus Al Shabab 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 15% | Al Shabab 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.81 xG and Al Shabab 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.814 / defence 0.903 | Al Shabab attack 1.299 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.050. Al Shabab have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al-Fayha games / 34 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 24% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al Shabab 2.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 24% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Fayha 0.81 / Al Shabab 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.814 / def 0.903 | Al Shabab attack 1.299 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Shabab xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:20 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fayha 1 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 24% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.30x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
24%
4.10
30%
3.39
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.04
1.23
Al Shabab xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.23 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 13D 13L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.97 PPG from 34 outings (19W 10D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.88 scored and 1.06 conceded. Al Shabab's attacking output running into Al-Fayha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Al Shabab in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 13D 13L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 10D 5L in their last 34 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.59 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
8
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Shabab have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 18%, Al Shabab 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 6% for Al-Fayha and 59% for Al Shabab.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Al Shabab in 35%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 53% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 6% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 59% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Fayha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.81 xG and Al Shabab 1.23 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 0.90 against Al Shabab attack 1.30 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 24% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 46%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 15%, Al Shabab 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.