Al-Fayha 1-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 42%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 16:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 5W 4D 0L this season (9 games, 2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.11 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 9 home games (89%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Al Shabab are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Al Shabab 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 40% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 15% | Al Shabab 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and Al Shabab 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.677 / defence 0.727 | Al Shabab attack 1.012 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.170. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Al-Fayha games / 21 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 32% | Al Shabab 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Al Shabab 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 11% | Al Shabab 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 32% | Al Shabab 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Fayha 1.19 / Al Shabab 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.677 / def 0.727 | Al Shabab attack 1.012 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al Shabab xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:40 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fayha 1 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 42% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.68x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.01x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
42%
2.35
32%
3.14
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.05
0.86
Al Shabab xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.86 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 9D 5L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 2.00 PPG from 20 outings (11W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 4D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.67 points per game from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.85 scored and 1.20 conceded. Al Shabab's attacking output running into Al-Fayha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Al Shabab in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 11W 7D 2L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.11 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
8
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Shabab have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Al-Fayha) and 44% (Al Shabab) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fayha and 56% for Al Shabab.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 89% of their matches; Al Shabab in 33%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Shabab in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 44% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 56% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 1-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.19 xG and Al Shabab 0.86 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.68 / defence 0.73 against Al Shabab attack 1.01 / defence 1.48, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 32% | Al Shabab 26%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 15%, Al Shabab 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.