Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Nassr, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fayha.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Nassr 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Nassr 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Nassr 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.932 / defence 0.915 | Al-Nassr attack 1.456 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Al-Fayha games / 57 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Nassr 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fayha 1.04 / Al-Nassr 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.932 / def 0.915 | Al-Nassr attack 1.456 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Al-Nassr xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 20% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 7W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
20%
4.91
24%
4.14
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.89
1.85
Al-Nassr xG
4.91
20%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
3%
31.08
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.85 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 18D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 39W 8D 10L from 57 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (9W 11D 8L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 19W 3D 6L from 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.46 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 15W 18D 24L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 39W 8D 10L in their last 57 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.36 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 39%, Al-Nassr 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Fayha) and 75% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 39%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 61% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 75% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.04 xG and Al-Nassr 1.85 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Al-Nassr attack 1.46 / defence 0.75, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 55%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.