Al-Fayha 3-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Fateh are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Fateh 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 42% versus Al-Fateh 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 31% | Al-Fateh 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.712 / defence 1.075 | Al-Fateh attack 1.133 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.239. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Al-Fayha games / 55 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 1.92. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Fateh 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Fayha 0.88 / Al-Fateh 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.712 / def 1.075 | Al-Fateh attack 1.133 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha 3 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 22% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
22%
4.56
26%
3.81
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.39
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
5%
20.63
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.8 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.51 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 55 games, going 14W 18D 23L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.35 PPG from 55 outings (21W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.09 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.56 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 14W 18D 23L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 11D 23L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 26%, Al-Fateh 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Al-Fayha) and 52% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 41% of games; Al-Fateh in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 48% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 52% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 3-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.51 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.71 / defence 1.07 against Al-Fateh attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 22% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 52%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 31%, Al-Fateh 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.