Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Fateh are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Fateh, with 5 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
The historical record gives Al-Fayha a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 42% versus Al-Fateh 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Al-Fateh 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.674 / defence 1.037 | Al-Fateh attack 0.783 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.493. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Al-Fayha games / 50 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fateh 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Al-Fayha dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Fateh are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Fayha 0.91 / Al-Fateh 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.674 / def 1.037 | Al-Fateh attack 0.783 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.493 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Fateh xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 26% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Fayha 4W | Draws 5 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
26%
3.79
32%
3.17
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.12
1.21
Al-Fateh xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.21 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 50 games, going 11W 17D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (17W 9D 24L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 6W 10D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.38 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 17D 22L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 17W 9D 24L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 38%, Al-Fateh 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Fayha) and 50% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 46% of games; Al-Fateh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 58% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.21 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.67 / defence 1.04 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Fateh 42%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Fateh 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.00 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.