Al-Fateh 4-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Shabab travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Shabab — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Shabab's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Shabab and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 40% versus Al Shabab 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 50% | Al Shabab 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.16 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.051 / defence 0.923 | Al Shabab attack 1.156 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.137. Data: 38 Al-Fateh games / 38 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Al Shabab 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 30% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fateh 1.16 / Al Shabab 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.051 / def 0.923 | Al Shabab attack 1.156 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Shabab xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh 4 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 35% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.05) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.59
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.37
1.21
Al Shabab xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.21 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 5L across 38 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Shabab by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 3D 9L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 9W 6D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.89 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 11D 5L in their last 38 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.26 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 37%, Al Shabab 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Fateh) and 58% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Shabab in 32%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 58% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Fateh's matches and 58% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Shabab 4-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.16 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Al Shabab attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 37%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 50%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.