Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al Shabab travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 August 2021, 16:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 0.50 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.46 xG and Al Shabab 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.887 / defence 1.151 | Al Shabab attack 0.851 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.016. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al-Fateh games / 2 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 47% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 4.00. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Aug 2021, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 47% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.46 / Al Shabab 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.887 / def 1.151 | Al Shabab attack 0.851 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Shabab xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:45 on Thursday 26 August 2021 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 47% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.89) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.47
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.45
0.99
Al Shabab xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.99 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 0.50 PPG, Al Shabab on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 2.00 scored and 2.50 conceded. Al Shabab's attacking output running into Al-Fateh's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Fateh's games and 100% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 100% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Shabab 2-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.46 xG and Al Shabab 0.99 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Al Shabab attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 47% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 25%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 0%, Al Shabab 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 0.50 PPG, Al Shabab 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.