Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 3W 4D 2L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.40 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Hazm in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Hazm 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 56% | Al-Hazm 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.240 / defence 1.217 | Al-Hazm attack 0.875 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.426. Data: 52 Al-Fateh games / 18 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 3.45. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Hazm 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Fateh 2.01 / Al-Hazm 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.240 / def 1.217 | Al-Hazm attack 0.875 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Hazm xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 49% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.24) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.88x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.46
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.53
1.52
Al-Hazm xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
4%
25.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.52 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 6W 4D 8L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 5W 5D 8L from 18 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.11 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.06 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Al-Fateh, 67% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Fateh and 67% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Fateh's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Fateh's matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 1.52 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.24 / defence 1.22 against Al-Hazm attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 56%, Al-Hazm 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.