Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 67% versus Al-Ettifaq 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al-Ettifaq 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.065 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 46 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 14% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 60%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 7.14 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 14% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.86 / Al-Ettifaq 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / def 1.220 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.065 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 18 March 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 14% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.06x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
14%
7.00
26%
3.89
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
7.00
14%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.80
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
2%
47.62
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.92 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 4D 6L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 2.33 points per game from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.58 PPG overall record — Al-Ettifaq travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 67%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 33% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 67%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.