Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 59% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.00 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.109 / defence 1.328 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.479 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — the away xG of 2.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Ettifaq games / 39 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 11% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.00 / 2.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 11% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.00 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.109 / def 1.328 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.479 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.57
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
60%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 11% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 70% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.48x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.57.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
11%
9.04
19%
5.20
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.57
2.57
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
9.04
11%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
8%
13.08
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
1%
118.25
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.57 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 17W 8D 14L from 39 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 0L across 39 games — 2.54 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 15W 5D 0L across 20 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.62 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 30W 9D 0L in their last 39 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 60%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Ettifaq and 60% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 55% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.