Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Thursday 10 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.10 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 4W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.30 xG and Al-Fayha 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.873 / defence 1.277 | Al-Fayha attack 0.739 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.476. Data: 46 Al-Ettifaq games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 32% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Fayha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 32% | Draw 31% | Al-Fayha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.30 / Al-Fayha 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.873 / def 1.277 | Al-Fayha attack 0.739 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Fayha xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 December 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 32% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.74x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.27
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.69
1.39
Al-Fayha xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.39 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 12D 15L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 61%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Ettifaq and 61% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 61% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.